Aksu dates sharply reduced production, futures prices rose more than 50% a month

On August 13, date CJ2201 closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, up 2.83 percent. The contract touched 13,980 yuan/ton in late trading, continuing its highest level since listing. Under the forecast of new season production cut, some speculators in the spot market appeared hoarding phenomenon, and the futures market was in a strong mood. In the past month, date futures have risen more than 50 per cent.

And on spot market, red date sells area to buy to sell to begin active likewise, supply of supply of producing area goods is short of. According to the data, cangzhou market gradually increased the number of merchants to grab goods, the hot source of goods is difficult to purchase, and the cold storage transaction is active. According to local broker reflect, the source of goods that sell like hot sale is in demand, 1000 goods that have merchant ordered, cold storage is busy, installed 300 only. In the distribution center, jujube prices continue to maintain a small upward trend. Production area warehouse jujube market stability in the hard operation, the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase, to speed up the goods. From the seasonal point of view, the consumption of red dates, the current Mid-Autumn festival and National Day double preparation period is near, the weather after the festival becomes cold, red dates will enter the seasonal year after year consumption season, until April 2022 consumption will again turn weak. Therefore, production reduction expected fermentation superposition seasonal consumption season gradually approaching, red date consumption or will continue to improve.

Aksu as the representative of xinjiang jujube production is the most important reason for the price rise. According to the origin investigation, although the jujube growth is still in the fruit development period, from the fruit setting status quo, aksu area production is determined. Xinjiang's red dates are mainly distributed in Aksu and Kashgar, which account for about 75 percent of xinjiang's total production, or 37 percent of the national total production. In 2021, the area of red jujube replanted in Aksu area is about 100,000 mu, and the decrease of planting area has sown the seeds for the expected yield reduction. At this time, severe weather such as frost, hail and high temperature occurred in Xinjiang producing areas, which further amplified the support of yield reduction. In early June this year, there was more rain in Xinjiang, which delayed the flowering and fruit setting of the new season. After the delay, the fruit setting period coincided with the seasonal high temperature period in early July in Xinjiang. Under the condition of balancing water resources and income, farmers give priority to cotton water, resulting in insufficient water supply to jujube trees in the seasonal high temperature stage in early July. Under the influence of multiple factors, the number of red jujube fruits dropped in this year was more than that of the previous year, which further strengthened the expectation of production reduction. Aksu jujube production is expected to decrease by an average of about 35% this year, which is equivalent to 7.7% of national production. In addition to aksu in other areas, a small reduction in production is also objective existence, roughly estimated this year's national jujube production year-on-year decline or about 15%.

Chinese jujube can be divided into four categories: fresh, dried, preserved and mixed. The main varieties traded by Zheng Shang are grey jujube. The National Bureau of Statistics data, red jujube production in our country about 7 million tons, the data for the fresh fruit, and the forestry statistical yearbook data showed that Chinese jujube production in 5.28 million tons (2019), the data did not do strict requirements on red water, so the whole dried jujube production actual official data to less. Although statistics show that Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the production of red dates, the vast majority of the 2.63 million tons of dried dates in China actually come from Xinjiang.

Similar to the apple industry, the production of red dates increased significantly in the early 2000s, but with the stagnation of population growth and the slowing of consumer demand growth, the overall supply has exceeded the demand. However, the overall production of jujube has declined in 17 years, mainly because of the low income of planting, farmers abandon weight and change the phenomenon of planting. The north of Tarim River has more water and the quality of red jujube is relatively ordinary, so the change of planting is more obvious, while the south of Tarim River is still relatively stable.

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